The Fix Is In

I had never really thought about this until I heard Jim Rome discuss it one day. The NBA Lottery has an interesting format that is different from any other lottery I have ever seen. The format itself tends to lend itself to speculation about improprieties, without any other evidence, but with the other evidence, this is a sham that every NBA fan should complain about.

All the potential candidates (12) from the lowest record teams that participate are gathered in a room during halftime of a playoff game. There is a wall with 12 shelves for the logos of each team. The commissioner comes out behind a security guard and proceeds to open 12 envelopes from 12 - 1 which detail the order of the draft picks.

How do these 12 picks get ordered? Well, here is what we are told: Each team receives 1 or more lottery balls which are placed in a lottery picking machine and 3 balls are withdrawn. The 12th worst record gets one ball, the 11th gets 2 balls, the 10th 3 balls, and so on. This should result in the worst record team having the best chance to win the lottery. After the three balls as withdrawn, all other teams are then ordered by their record for the picks.

One really interesting thing to note is that this is done on TV in a similar manner to most other lotteries with one exception. No one gets to see the balls. In a recent issue of ESPN magazine there was a great comic on the last page that shows all the balls being marked as "Wizards" balls. I'll post the issue and perhaps a link when I get time.

Why Not Show Us?

I honestly can't think of a good idea. In fact, the only real reason that I can come up with is so the lottery can be fixed. Why else wouldn't the balls be shown to the public? The execs could be kept in the dark and their reactions still be genuine. They could catch the balls in a tube and block them out behind a card and then withdraw the card ball by ball to show the ordering.

You can't tell me that it's not possible. If it's possible, then why not do it? The only reason is that they league wants to influence the outcome. They want the control to market or boost a failing franchise. This year, they want to stage Michael Jordan's comeback and boost the failing Wizards franchise with a #1 pick.

Not that I blame them. It's a good marketing move, but leave the lottery off TV (who tunes in specifically for this?) and just announce the order of picks. It's a gimmick that was a good idea, but if it's not real, then what's the point.

History

Let's examine some history. Here's a table from the last few years of lottery picks.

Year

Worst Record

Lottery Winners

News

2001

Wizards

Washington Wizards

Michael Jordan rumored to be coming back.

2000 LA Clippers (25%) New Jersey Nets (4%)

1999 Chicago Bulls MJ retires

1998 LA Clippers

1997 San Antonio Spurs

1996 Philadelphia 76ers

1995 Golden State Warriors

1994 Milwaukee Bucks

1993 Orlando Magic Shaq picked last year, this year's top prospects are Chris Webber and Anythony Hardaway. Can you imagine the draw of one of these with Shaq?

1992 Orlando Magic Shaq is coming out. Where better than one of the newest franchises in the league and a good market.

1991 Charlotte Hornets

1990 New Jersey Nets